CH12: replace dated mining pool example with a timeless example

develop
David A. Harding 1 year ago
parent 2735c25bfa
commit 323922aef1

@ -1798,45 +1798,18 @@ smaller share of the overall reward, but typically get rewarded every
day, reducing uncertainty.
Let's look at a specific example. Assume a miner has purchased mining
hardware with a combined hashing rate of 14,000 gigahashes per second
(GH/s), or 14 TH/s. In 2017 this equipment costs approximately $2,500
USD. The hardware consumes 1375 watts (1.3 kW) of electricity when
running, 33 kW-hours a day, at a cost of $1 to $2 per day at very low
electricity rates. At current bitcoin difficulty, the miner will be able
to solo mine a block approximately once every 4 years. How do we work
out that probability? It is based on a network-wide hashing rate of 3
EH/sec (in 2017), and the miner's rate of 14 TH/sec:
++++
<ul class="simplelist">
<li>P = (14 * 10<sup>12</sup> / 3 * 10<sup>18</sup>) * 210240 = 0.98</li>
</ul>
++++
...where 21240 is the number of blocks in four years. The miner has a
98% probability of finding a block over four years, based on the global
hash rate at the beginning of the period.
If the miner does find a single block in that timeframe, the payout of
12.5 bitcoin, at approximately $1,000 per bitcoin, will result in a
single payout of $12,500, which will produce a net profit of about
$7,000. However, the chance of finding a block in a 4-year period
depends on the miner's luck. He might find two blocks in 4 years and
make a very large profit. Or he might not find a block for 5 years and
suffer a bigger financial loss. Even worse, the difficulty of the
bitcoin Proof-of-Work algorithm is likely to go up significantly over
that period, at the current rate of growth of hashing power, meaning the
miner has, at most, one year to break even before the hardware is
effectively obsolete and must be replaced by more powerful mining
hardware. If this miner participates in a mining pool, instead of
waiting for a once-in-four-years $12,500 windfall, he will be able to
earn approximately $50 to $60 per week. The regular payouts from a
mining pool will help him amortize the cost of hardware and electricity
over time without taking an enormous risk. The hardware will still be
obsolete in one or two years and the risk is still high, but the revenue
is at least regular and reliable over that period. Financially this only
makes sense at very low electricity cost (less than 1 cent per kW-hour)
and only at very large scale.
hardware with a combined hashing rate of 0.0001% of current the total
network hash rate. If the protocol difficulty never changes, that miner
will find a new block approximately once every 20 years. That's a
potentially long time to wait to get paid. However, if that miner works
together in a mining pool with other miners whose aggregate hash rate is
1% of the total network hash rate, they'll average more than one block
per day. That miner will only receive their portion of the rewards
(minus any fees charged by the pool), so they'll only receive a small
amount per day. If they mined every day for 20 years, they'd earn the
same amount (not counting pool fees) as if they found an average block
on their own. The only fundamental difference is the frequency of the
payments they receive.
Mining pools coordinate many hundreds or thousands of miners, over
specialized pool-mining protocols. The individual miners configure their

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